SUMMARY OF THE 24th MEETING OF THE SPACE MISSION PLANNING ADVISORY GROUP (SMPAG)

5-6 February  2025

M-Building, Vienna International Centre (VIC)

On the margins of the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee

Hybrid meeting (MS Teams)

The 24th meeting of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) took place on 5-6 February 2025, on the margins of the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (3 – 14 February 2025). The meeting was chaired by the European Space Agency (ESA), the current SMPAG Chair (2023-2025) and supported by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) as the secretariat.  

Adoption of the agenda and introduction of participants

The revised agenda was adopted. The following agencies and institutions were represented at the meeting: ASI, CNES, CNSA, CSA, Czechia, DLR, ESA, FFG, ISA, JAXA, KASI, NASA, SUPARCO, UKSA as well as observers for COSPAR, ESO, IAA and IAU Representative of IAWN, ex officio member, participated at the meeting. attended the meeting.  The meeting was also attended by observers for ISRO (India) and AEE (Spain). Representatives from the SMPAG Legal Working Group also attended the meeting.

  1. Status and General Items, Membership

SMPAG Chair, Detlef Koschny on behalf of ESA, presented the status of SMPAG work and the way forward, in particular related to the hypothetical asteroid impact exercise that SMPAG has been conducting since August 2024, in preparation for the 2025 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, to be held 5-9 May, in Stellenbosch, South Africa.

The Chair thanked the Italian Space Agency, ASI for hosting the 23rd SMPAG meeting in Milano, Italy. On membership, the Chair informed that SMPAG currently has 19 members, 1 ex-officio member (IAWN) and 7 observers (http://www.smpag.net /smpag_members). He welcomed two space agencies that joined as observers, namely ISRO (India) and AEE (Spain) and invited them to consider becoming members.

The Chair also informed that the UN General Assembly declared 2029 as the International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defense in a dedicated resolution 79/86 of 4 December 2024, and thanked all delegations for their support, in particular Romania, who led this process, as well UNOOSA as the secretariat.

Asteroid “2024 YR4”

On asteroid “2024 YR4”, the Chair recalled the IAWN and SMPAG agreed criteria and thresholds for action, and informed that an IAWN notification was received on 29 January 2025. The threshold for SMPAG to become active is >1 % and >50 m in size, therefore SMPAG has considered the known facts about the object. It was concluded that it is too early to take immediate action. However, SMPAG will monitor the evolution of impact threat and possible knowledge about the size closely.

The Chair recalled that all SMPAG documents and meeting minutes are available at https://smpag.net , including the documents on the hypothetical asteroid impact exercise – Epoch 1 results and the SMPAG statements related to the real case of asteroid “2024 YR4”.  The webpage is currently undergoing format change.

  1. Report by IAWN

IAWN Coordinator, Kelly Fast, NASA PDCO, reported on the status of IAWN since the last SMPAG meeting. There are now 61 official signatories to the IAWN Statement of Intent, representing independent astronomers, observatories, and space institutions from 28 countries. The Steering Committee of IAWN has held review meetings about twice each year, most recently on 4 February 2025. IAWN also contributes to a hypothetical scenario exercise that the SMPAG is holding in preparation for the 9th IAA PDC in South Africa in May.

The IAWN Coordinator further informed on IAWN actions related to asteroid “2024 YR4”, which was first reported on 27 December 2024.  The capabilities of IAWN were critically demonstrated on 29 January 2025 when IAWN sent an official notification to UNOOSA for dissemination to UN Member States of a recently discovered potential future asteroid impact threat predicted for 22 December 2032.  The worldwide network of observatories of the IAWN continued to submit follow-up observations to the Minor Planet Center and the impact probability was independently calculated by the NASA JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, the ESA Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, and the NEO Dynamics Site. Once the three orbit computation centers were in agreement that the 1 % impact probability threshold had been crossed, the IAWN Steering Committee began to coordinate the official notification of a 1.3 % probability of a future impact. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is likely to be in the range of 40 to 90 meters in size, which could result in blast damage should it impact Earth. The impact probability is changing daily with continued telescopic observations. Recent information on asteroid 2024 YR4 as well as about IAWN’s past and on-going observation campaigns, including how to join IAWN, is available at the IAWN website at  https://iawn.net.

3)  2025 PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise – Epoch 1 and Epoch 2

The Chair recalled that SMPAG continues its work on an international exercise, coordinated by the Italian Space Agency ASI, which is divided into Sprint 1 (completed) with focus on the national organisation and coordination and on defining the lists of tasks to be performed in response to a real threat scenario;  Sprint  2 with focus on the coordination among different SMPAG delegations; Sprint 3 with focus on communication and coordination issues within SMPAG, and linkages with IAWN.

SMPAG currently uses a simulated asteroid impact threat, which was developed by an international team within the frame of IAWN to prepare a decision-makers panel discussion at the upcoming IAA Planetary Defense Conference 2025.

The hypothetical scenario is available at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc25/

The Chair informed that SMPAG meets weekly since the IAWN hypothetical notification received on 1 August 2024 and that its work is divided into six Work Packages (WPs), led by space agencies:

o   WP 01 – Mission scenarios for a reconnaissance mission.

o   WP 02 – Mission scenarios for a deflection mission.

o   WP 03 – Spacecraft and payload design/selection for a reconnaissance mission.

o   WP 04 – Spacecraft and payload design/selection for a deflection mission.

o  WP 05 – Developing cost scenarios (inputs from WP 01 and WP 02)

o WP 06 – Communication strategy (including internal communication, communication to decision-makers, to the public)

At its 23rd meeting, SMPAG agreed on its recommendations for Epoch 1 of the hypothetical exercise, available here.

During its current meeting, SMPAG continued exchanges on Epoch 2 of the hypothetical exercise, with the aim to finalize its recommendations on Epoch 2 at its weekly meetings by 11 April 2025 and to have them in place for the IAA PDC, 5-9 May 2025, for dedicated panels that will address hypothetical exercise and hopefully also engage the African space agencies in the discussions. IAWN hypothetical notification for Epoch 2 was issued on 16 December 2024.

Action: SMPAG agreed to have a conference room paper, containing information about the entire hypothetical impact scenario (Recommendations of Epoch 1 and 2) developed for 2025 PDC made available for STSC in 2026.

4)  SMPAG Observers and other points related to SMPAG Terms of Reference (ToR)

The SMPAG Chair recalled the agreement by SMPAG at is 22nd meeting to further discuss the status of observer organizations with SMPAG, in conjunction with SMPAG Terms of Reference, v.2 of 13 September 2019, where the observer status has not been duly reflected. Delegations emphasized the importance of openness and transparency, and that observers to SMPAG should have relevance for SMPAG work related to space missions and the development of capabilities needed to enable such missions.

Action: SMPAG agreed for the secretariat to distribute a text proposal related to amending the SMPAG ToR to reflect the observer status, so that the SMPAG Steering Committee can take a decision at the next meeting.

5) Proposal for SMPAG Woking Group on Apophis

SMPAG agreed that a working group on Apophis would be of value, given a number of bilateral and multilateral efforts to build upon the unique opportunity of a close approach of Apophis. SMPAG acknowledges the importance of missions to Apophis for full characterization of the asteroid prior to its close approach to Earth as important demonstration of capabilities for planetary defence.

Action:  SMPAG agreed that a dedicated SMPAG Working Group on Apophis would be of value as a dedicated platform for exchanging information and partnering on potential Apophis missions, including the ones that can be re-purposed prior to close approach to support the science behind this close approach, as well as raise awareness among the public and decision-makers. Draft Terms of Reference will be prepared by COSPAR and disseminated in advance of  a dedicated meeting of SMPAG delegations on 24 April 2025 (closed 1 April 2025). 

Presentation by COSPAR on asteroid Apophis – Science 

COSPAR President Pascale Ehrenfreund presented to SMPAG conclusions from a meeting during the COSPAR General Assembly, held on 13-21 July 2024 in Busan, Republic of Korea, on asteroid Apophis - Science and the activities of COSPAR in the area of planetary protection.

COSPAR also organized a side-event during the STSC session entitled “Apophis 2029: Advancing Science and Planetary Defence in the International Year of Asteroid Awareness. Information on the panellists is available here.

6) General exchange of information on activities by SMPAG members related to

SMPAG: updates on the on-going and planned activities were presented by:

ASI, CNES, DLR, ESA (oral only), ISA, JAXA, NASA (oral only).

7) Activities and status of the SMPAG Legal Working Group

The coordinator of the SMPAG Legal Working Group, Alissa Haddaji, presented the work status of 2024 and planned activities for 2025. The WG Legal report overview that is currently being prepared comprises the following chapters: Obligations to Inform and Act; Legality of PD Methods; Responsibility for PD Activities; Liability; Considerations for Decision Bodies.

The WG Legal also compiled information on PD and the Artemis Accords.

Funding: The activities of WG Legal Coordinator were funded through IAA/PDC until August 2024. The SMPAG Chair and the SMPAG Legal WG Coordinator are working to secure further financial support.

Action: SMPAG Chair invited delegations and observers to consider joining forces in providing further support to the LWG Coordinator for this work in support of the SMPAG Legal WG.

8) 2025 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, 5-9 May 2025

The 9th IAA International Planetary Defense Conference will be held 5 – 9 May 2025 in Stellenbosch, Cape Town, South Africa. It will convene officials and experts from around the world to discuss current knowledge of asteroids and comets that might pose an impact risk to Earth. It will feature panel discussions, invited and contributed talks, and a poster session, with options for in-person or virtual participation. The information and registration are available at https://iaaspace.org/event/9th-iaa-planetary-defense-conference-2025/.

9) UN-designated International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defence, 2029

The UN General Assembly designated year 2029 as the International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defence, 2029. The resolution is available in all 6 official languages of the United Nations, here. A dedicated UN webpage is available here.

The working group under the lead of Doris Daou, NASA is advancing its work towards the implementation phase of this International Year.

Action: SMPAG members and observers are invited to join these efforts and promote the Year. Please contact secretariat.

10) Next meetings of SMPAG

  • Next meeting (25th SMPAG) is proposed to be held in the timeframe of 1st or 2nd week in October 2025, possibly in the USA, Baltimore, combined with a visit to Minor Planet Center.
  • For information, IAC is 29 Sep to 3 Oct 2025, in Sydney, Australia.
  • SMPAG will continue to meet weekly on Fridays in a virtual format, to finalize its recommendations on Epoch 2 for the 2025 IAA PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario.
  • SMPAG will also hold a meeting with SMPAG delegations in a virtual format on 24 April to discuss draft ToRs for the Apophis working group.

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Documents at the 24th meeting of SMPAG and before the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of COPUOS, under agenda item Near-Earth Objects:

  • Statement by the IAWN Coordinator to the Subcommittee:

https://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/copuos/stsc/2025/Statements/9_IAWN_statement_long_for_webpage.pdf

  • Conference room paper 6 – Status report by IAWN and SMPAG to the Subcommittee:

https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2025/aac_105c_12025crp/aac_105c_12025crp_6_0_html/AC105_C1_2025_CRP06E.pdf

  • SMPAG Statement on “2024 YR4”, as published on smpag.net

https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/smpag/